AGRICULTURAL NEWS - The impact of climate change continues to have devastating effects on countries across the globe, and South Africa has not been spared.
The Western Cape has experienced one of its worst droughts in decades, while the Free State and Northern Cape have seen substantial depletion of livestock as well as crop failure due to persistent drought conditions.
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Prof Francois Engelbrecht, chief researcher for climate studies, modelling and environmental health at the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), says the increase in temperatures across Southern Africa over the last five decades can be directly attributed to the enhanced greenhouse effect, or anthropogenic forcing.
“The effects include temperatures in the interior regions of Southern Africa that are increasing at about twice the global rate, and increases in the number of high fire-danger days and number of heatwave days. These increases in temperature on their own are important due to the negative effects that extreme temperature events have on numerous agricultural industries, for example crop yields and livestock production.”
Engelbrecht notes that over the winter rainfall region, anthropogenic forcing has already increased the likelihood of multi-year droughts.
“Over the summer rainfall region, there is not clear evidence that climate change has already increased the likelihood for droughts to occur, although events such as the 2015/2016 El Niño and related drought is projected to occur more frequently under climate change.”
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. During this phase, the Pacific Ocean normally warms up by 0,01%. But with global warming, the temperature increase has climbed to 0,1% and it could possibly rise to 1% if global warming continues on its current path.
The warming of the ocean interrupts the usual weather patterns and affects the global climate. This could result in droughts in one region and intense storms in another.
In response to the changing and often erratic climatic conditions seen over the past few decades, the Department of Science and Technology launched the South African Risk and Vulnerability Atlas (SARVA).
The second edition, published last year, urges planners and decision makers to move from reactive crisis management to proactive climate change and disaster risk management approaches. This is especially true for the 20 most vulnerable municipalities in South Africa, all of which are secondary cities and small towns.
SARVA states that rural areas are particularly vulnerable due to their dependency on climate-sensitive resources such as water and an agrarian landscape.
Changes in farm activity
Engelbrecht notes that the sub-Saharan climate will be especially affected by climate change.
“Southern Africa is projected to become generally drier, with more El Niño-related droughts. East Africa is projected to become generally wetter. Oppressive temperatures and heatwave-related events are projected to occur more frequently across the Southern African region.”
Consequently, the economic environment will be affected, as shifts in farming activities are inevitable.
“Southern Africa has been identified by the ‘Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C’ as one of the regions in the world where climate change will impact most negatively on economic growth, considering the widespread impact on the agriculture sector,” says Engelbrecht.
“Should regional warming reach levels of about 6°C towards the end of the second half of the century, the collapse of the maize crop and livestock industries may plausibly occur in Southern Africa.”
