Third wave 'arriving' in W Cape in next 2 weeks

WESTERN CAPE NEWS - Dr Keith Cloete, head of the provincial health department, said yesterday, Thursday 3 June, that the third wave in the province is imminent and it would probably 'arrive' next week or the week after.

According to the national definition, the threshold is when the number of new cases per day reaches a third of what was experienced at the peak of the previous waves, and the province is entering into that terrain.

"From experience this likely heralds imminent widespread community transmission,” said Cloete. “Several widespread cluster events were reported similar to what we saw in November last year during the steep incline in the second wave."

The Western Cape has experienced an increase in new cases of over 20% in the past week and the Garden Route has shown a 49% increase in new cases in the past week.

Speaking during Premier Alan Winde's weekly digicon, Cloete said people need to adhere non-pharmaceutical interventions (wearing masks, sanitising and social distancing) much more rigorously and they would recommend the National Coronavirus Command Council to curb gatherings and people's movement and travel to and from high-risk areas.

Steep 3rd wave can cause havoc
Cloete said the most important reason to curb the third wave is so that the vaccination programme, which has just started to gain momentum, is not interrupted. Furthermore, a third de-escalation of other routine health services "will cause havoc in having to catch up" with services for TB, HIV and mental health patients, as well as child and women's health services and elective surgery.

"If we respond strongly and quickly, we can reduce the third wave, admissions and deaths and so limit de-escalation of other routine health services,” he said.

Covid cases at schools in Garden Route
In the past week, there were small outbreaks in the Garden Route, including at a number of schools. A big increase in cases is being experienced in all sub-districts in the Garden Route (except Kannaland and Hessequa), with Mossel Bay of special concern. George Hospital is experiencing an increase in admissions.

In the province, there are 40 new hospital admissions and between five and six deaths daily. Fourteen deaths were reported by the end of yesterday, Wednesday 2 June.

The portion of tests in the province that returns positive is now 8,4% compared with 5% a few weeks ago.

Increase in predominantly affluent areas
In the Cape Town metro, the new cases are predominantly from private patients in the more affluent areas and the increase in hospitalisations is mostly in private hospitals.

In the Garden Route, the proportion of tests in the public and private sector is even.

Pressure on healthcare workers high
Cloete said the high pressure on healthcare workers who are vaccinating people on top of delivering routine health services will increase as Covid cases increase. Vaccination will reduce hospitalisations, which will ease the pressure. "This is an urgent appeal to help us to continue vaccination and so reduce cases who come to hospital."